Commodity Sales Forecasting and Allocation
Demand forecast by grade, customer and destination, turned into an allocation plan that respects production, logistics and the commitments already contracted.
Typical outcomes for this kind of engagement. Results depend on your data and starting point.
A commodity producer sells a limited quantity of several grades into contracts, spot buyers and export routes that each carry different value and different risk. The forecast is built in a spreadsheet from last year plus judgement, and the allocation that follows is negotiated in a meeting. Neither is easy to reproduce, and when production or a vessel slips there is no quick way to see which customer should absorb it.
- Forecasts built in spreadsheets from last year plus judgement
- Allocation negotiated in a meeting and difficult to reproduce afterwards
- Contract commitments and spot upside weighed without a common view
- No fast answer to which customer absorbs a production or vessel slip
- Sales, production and logistics each planning from their own numbers
CloudGate forecasts demand by grade, customer and destination from order history, contract profiles, price and market signals, then generates an allocation plan against real constraints: production availability, inventory, vessel and rail capacity, and contractual commitments that must be met first. When production or logistics change, the plan is recalculated and the trade-off between customers is made explicit.
- Demand forecast by grade, customer and destination, not one blended number
- Order history, contract profiles, price and market signals in one model
- Allocation generated against production, inventory and logistics capacity
- Contractual commitments met first, with spot upside allocated after
- Replanning when production or shipping changes, with the trade-off shown
- One plan that sales, production and logistics read from